Instapundit, his wife, and Ann Althouse have jumped on the boys-are-illiterate meme as of late. For those boys (and girls) who are literate, and therefore get a college degree, a greater risk awaits them in the real world: innumeracy.
There is a story that has been around for years, and I don't know if it is apocryphal or not, which says that an anti-gun organization came up with the statistic "each year since 1960 the number of children killed by guns had doubled."
Try that statistic out on someone.
Then sit down and calculate what that means: More people have been killed by guns in 2005 than have ever walked the face of the earth. Clearly, more people cannot have been killed than have walked the face of the earth--that's a paradox. A logical impossibility. Despite our ability to calculate such a number, it nevertheless could not happen.
Carl Bialik, who writes the Numbers Guy column for the Wall St. Journal notes that many journalists don't know much about numbers. He spoke with one Richard Holden, a former editor, who now runs seminars for journalists about how to use numbers correctly:
Mr. Holden focuses on numbers that probably are correct, but are poorly or mistakenly presented by newspapers. "An editor's job is to take things that don't make sense and try to make sure that they do," he says. "When readers plunk money down for a newspaper, they're not buying it to have questions raised; they're buying it to have questions answered."
I asked Mr. Holden, 56 years old, if journalists have gotten better at numbers since he began the seminars. "I haven't been disappointed in 10 years" of looking for new examples, he replied. He said attendees at his seminars often don't find the problems in his examples. "I'm surprised with professional newspaper people, how frequently it goes right over their head," he says. "Many times, I'm greeted by 30 blank stares."
Part of the problem is embedded in the culture of the profession, Mr. Holden says: "Journalists always prided themselves on knowing so little about math." (Specialists in business, economics and sports were notable exceptions.) He also points out that many journalists can sail through college and journalism school without taking a class in math or statistics. Numerical knowledge often gets acquired on the job. "You learn by doing, and learn somewhat from your mistakes," he says. "Hopefully we're kind of spreading the word a little bit by doing this."
Bialik ends his column with a quiz based on examples of erroneous or illogical thinking about numbers. I've copied the quiz here, and inserted my answers. I think I did fairly well:
1. Boosting the state's economy was a central tenet of Governor Smith's campaign as a challenger in the 2002 election. His supporters note that statewide economic growth of 3.5% in 2004 was a new record under Gov. Smith.
This doesn't tell us anything about economic growth under other governments. For all we know the economy could have shrunk markedly in years prior to 2004. Growing an economy from a smaller base isn't necessarily an accomplishment, especially if the economy is still smaller than its largest size.
2. A crowd of 93,356 saw the U.S. women's soccer team beat China, 1-0, to clinch the World Cup. That was the largest crowd to witness a women's athletic event since the 1996 soccer final at the Atlanta Olympic Games, which drew a record 84,975 fans.
What year did the US women's soccer team beat China 1-0? For all I know this happened prior to 1996. (I actually know that this happend *after* 1996, but how many readers pay that close attention to the successes of US women's soccer?)
3. Visa announced that its new credit card will carry an adjustable rate set monthly at four percent above the prime rate, in line with other variable-rate cards.
What's the prime rate? Does the prime rate change on a monthly basis, which this sentence implies? According to Wikipedia, the prime rate is not adjusted frequently, so does it really make sense to say it's "set monthly at four percent above the prime rate"?
4. The glaciers that span much of Greenland are melting quickly; one of them has more than doubled in speed, moving at a rate of 5.2 miles an hour, compared with 2.3 miles an hour a year earlier.
Is the rate of 5.2 miles an hour unprecedented, or is the rate of 2.3 miles per house unusually slow? There is no context given to relate the speed of 5.2 mph to historical averages or medians.
5. College grades carry the most weight, making up 56% of the final score. Fourteen percent is composed of test scores, recommendations and activities. The final 29% comes from 10 other criteria.
56 + 14 + 29 = 99. Where's the other 1%?
6. Since the displaced soil had a volume of more than 450,000 square yards, construction required many cranes.
What's the capacity of one crane? What's the time frame in which the displaced soil had to be moved? What's the normal number of cranes to be used to move displaced soil? This is a statistic without context: it gives the reader no information regarding the volume of displaced soil, whether that amount is unusual, what the rate of displaced soil removal would be with one crane, etc.
7. The charity said it would keep 30% of the funds it raises, with the remaining 70% divided as follows: grants to professors, 35%; grants to students, 20%, and grants to universities, 15%.
35% + 20% + 15% does not equal 100%. So, where does the remaining money apportioned to grants go?
8. Battling Hunger, a food pantry, said it delivered 110,000 tons of food to Detroit last Thanksgiving. The food was delivered to help residents there overcome the effects of a severe economic slump, particularly in the automobile industry.
How many tons of food is normally delivered to Detroit?
9. The football program has a 100% graduation rate, near the top of Division 1 colleges. The national average is below 50%.
How does a college graduate more than 100% of its football players?
10. Chipper Jones is batting just .176 in 85 at-bats with the Braves. But he has had more success as a pinch hitter, with five hits in 30 at-bats, including one that clinched a playoff spot.
Hitting five times in 30 at bats gives a batting average of 16.6% which is less than 17.6%. How is a lower percentage of successful at bats "more successful"?
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